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Forecast: 7 Top Auto Trends for 2016

December 31, 2015 by admin Leave a Comment

We take a look at what may become the top auto trends for 2016.

2016 Chevrolet Camaro.
2016 Chevrolet Camaro. (photo copyright GM Corp.)

This year (2015) will go down as one for the books. Specifically, it will be a sales record breaker once the books have been closed on Jan. 4. That means on Tuesday we’ll know which model was the best selling car (Toyota Camry), the best selling truck (Ford F-150), and the best selling luxury brand (BMW). Sorry for the spoilers.

Since the market bottomed out in 2009, consumers have been snapping up new vehicles, especially crossovers. Manufacturers continue to roll out new models along with the latest technologies and safety features.

If you haven’t purchased a car in at least a decade you’ll find a long list of included or available amenities not offered way back when. To that end, we’ll look at some of the top auto trends for 2016 and the impact of such trends.

1. Car sales continue to rise.

We’re due for an economic downturn, but that drop may still be more than a year away. If so, then look for US auto sales to top 18 million units in 2016, setting yet another record.

Although the Federal Reserve Bank has raised interest rates by 0.25 percent, the effect on consumers should be negligible. What is helping nearly everyone is low gas prices. As long as regular grade gasoline averages $2 per gallon or less, consumers will save hundreds of dollars per year.

2. The presidential election will become a factor.

No matter who the Democrats and Republicans serve up as their candidate, we’ll have two people who will be more alike than different. A number of policy issues will be discussed and debated; creating jobs for Americans will remain a top issue.

Expect both candidates to promise the moon, even if they can barely deliver on those promises. Expect a new administration to carefully review the fuel economy standards, perhaps proposing a rollback of the 54.5 mpg mandate that nearly all manufacturers will find tough to implement by 2025. That rollback, however, won’t occur before the new president takes office in January 2017.

2016 Volvo S60 Inscription

The made-in-China Volvo S60 Inscription.

3. Chinese-built cars will increase in numbers.

It wasn’t too long ago that the thought of Chinese-built cars reaching the North American market had some people up in arms. After all, how could any manufacturer compete against a $6,800 Geely? Then again, what junk would be foisted upon consumers at such a low price point?

Well those fears are unfounded. First, no Chinese manufacturer has entered the market all by itself. Second, the cars that are imported from China are from known manufacturers. For instance, the Volvo S60 Inscription, a stretched wheelbase model, is made in China. The Chinese-made Buick Envision arrives this spring.

Although the floodgates aren’t about to open, you’ll see more products from different places thanks to the Trans-Pacific Partnership Free Trade Agreement (TPP), which is expected to be signed in February. You can also expect strong push-back against TPP from both sides of the political aisle.


See Also — It’s a Wrap: 2018 in Review


4. Automotive lightweighting goes mainstream.

Okay, vehicle lightweighting is nothing new. Its just widely misunderstood.

A case in point — when I inquired at a recent automotive media event regarding lightweight properties for a new pickup truck, my hosts didn’t seem to understand my question. That question was further clouded when a colleague quipped, “They didn’t want to make it lighter because it is a heavy duty truck.” Sigh.

Car manufacturers, however, get lightweighting. They’re also working with elastomer manufacturers around the world to incorporate nitrile butadiene rubber in under-the-hood applications. As long as these and other materials are cost-effective, recyclable and practical, then greater adoption will continue throughout 2016 and well beyond.

2015 Ford F-150

The current-generation Ford F-150 is the poster model for all things lightweighting.

5. The lurch to autonomous driving continues.

The experts tell us that autonomous driving will arrive in 2020. That means within five years we’ll see the first driverless cars take to the road. That also means the beginning of the end for behind-the-wheel driving. Or does it?

No doubt, some type of autonomous driving will be in place, but with more than 250 million registered vehicles in the US, the percentage will be small, quite possibly matching the adoption rate for electric vehicles. Consumers won’t give up their cars en masse for several reasons, including wanting to keep the cars they love as well as not being able to afford the attendant higher cost for autonomous vehicles.

Politically, a backlash against autonomous vehicles may emerge, especially if consumers grow weary of the intrusiveness — perceived or otherwise — that emerging technologies bring, particularly in the form of privacy. Instead of a wholesale adoption of autonomous cars, a number of safety features will be standard. We’ll see adaptive cruise control, automatic braking, and lane keep assist in more models in 2016.

6. New alliances and partnerships emerge.

We’re seeing more alliances emerge across the auto industry and that pace should continue in 2016. Such agreements will be forged to give manufacturers an edge wherever needed. Toyota and Mazda hooking up essentially keeps the latter in the ultra-competitive US market for the long haul while giving Toyota much needed product (Scion iA) for a low cost. Mazda will soon benefit from Toyota hybrid technology; both manufacturers will probably share Mazda’s SKYACTIV technologies to some degree.

I won’t predict where those alliances will emerge, but figure that any product holes will be filled by such agreements. Mitsubishi, if it is to survive in the US, must find a partner to supply a midsize sedan, share in EV development, and otherwise fill out its weak portfolio. Today’s strange bedfellows may become tomorrow’s partners.

2016 Scion iA

The Scion iA is the result of a partnership between Toyota and Mazda.
(Photo copyright Toyota Motors).

7. Technologies begin to work as touted.

If you have purchased a car within the past two or three years, the telematics system may be one of your least favorite options. Consumer surveys conducted by J.D. Power have amplified that frustration, thus getting it right will give manufacturers a much-needed edge in luring on-the-fence shoppers.

Helping matters are two technology giants — Google and Apple. Both companies are vying for dashboard access with Google Android Auto and Apply CarPlay enabling ease of smartphone integration. Where manufacturers are slow to adopt either, third-party audio systems such as Pioneer and Kenwood are making units compatible with both. Thus, if you have an older car, you can enjoy that access and avoid buying a new car.

Top Auto Trends

Other top auto trends will have little to do with your car, at least directly. Most will have to do with buying a vehicle, with leasing likely to continue to grow in numbers, while long-term auto loans of up to 84 months become more common.

Of course, if any major international crisis erupts, then these predictions should be amended or tossed.

Filed Under: Automotive News Tagged With: ALLIANCES, Apple CarPlay, AUTONOMOUS DRIVING, BUICK ENVISION, China, GOOGLE ANDROID AUTO, LIGHTWEIGHTING, MAZDA, PARTNERSHIPS, PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, SKYACTIV, TOP AUTO TRENDS, Toyota, TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP FREE TRADE AGREEMENT, US CAR SALES, VOLVO S60 INSCRIPTION

Autonomous Driving: Well, Not Exactly

July 21, 2014 by admin Leave a Comment

Autonomous driving is one of the buzzwords that piques the interest of futurists. Just the thought of driving from Point A to Point B while taking a nap has some people clamoring for the technology. Certainly the safety aspect is important too, thus insurers, regulators and manufacturers are also advocating for driverless cars.

One of the automotive executives at the forefront of advancing autonomous drive is Carlos Ghosn, president and CEO of Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. His self-driving vehicle pronouncements have been carefully followed, including what plans the Renault-Nissan alliance has to further this initiative.

Well, Ghosn has clarified his earlier remarks, dialing down expectations in the process. No Nissan-built model will drive itself in 2020, the year when Ghosn had earlier pegged for bringing the technology to the market.

Autonomous Driving Lite

Nissan autonomous drivingInstead, Nissan plans to offer automated lane controls and highway traffic management systems, what will be introduced over the next four years. In essence, Nissan is taking a more conservative approach as it progressively rolling out technologies in advance of full-scale driverless cars.

By the end of 2016, Nissan will make available the next two technologies under its autonomous drive strategy, said Mr. Ghosn. We are bringing to market a traffic-jam pilot, a technology enabling cars to drive autonomously – and safely – on congested highways. In the same timeframe, we will make fully-automated parking systems available across a wide range of vehicles.

Ghosn presented Nissan’s goals in a speech to the Foreign Correspondents Club of Japan, last Wed. He said that the initial technologies will be followed by intersection-autonomy, what will permit vehicles to “negotiate city cross-roads without driver intervention.” Even so, Ghosn noted that “self-driving cars remain a long way from commercial reality.”

Overcoming Regulatory Hurdles

The Nissan executive admitted that there are quite a few hurdles to overcome before full-blown autonomous driving can become a reality. He noted that a “regulatory minefield” remains a huge obstacle, one composed not just of many nations, but various states and local jurisdictions that each have their own say.

Choosing the term “regulatory minefield” speaks volumes as it sends a signal that even with the technology ready to go, government approval will slow it down.

Four Major Trends

Ghosn outlined what he says as “four major trends” that would drive demand for autonomous drive technologies, as well as increase interest in zero-emission vehicles such as the Nissan LEAF, and greater in-car connectivity. The four trends are:

“(First), …the rise of global mega-cities, which is increasing the need for innovations to ease congestion, reducing emissions and improve traffic management.

Second, demand is growing for in-car communications that meet or exceed the high expectations of the digital generation. Our vehicles must be as connected as the smartphones and tablets that this generation depends upon day in and day out.

Third, there is the need to bridge the generation gap by providing vehicles that appeal to the worlds growing population of seniors. These consumers want technologies and automated systems that enable them to drive safely, for longer.

“Fourth s the pressing need to embrace gender diversity. This means recognizing the vital role that women play as consumer-purchasers, decision-makers and managers throughout the car industry.

Enhanced Communications

For its part Nissan expects to equip more than 1.5 million of its vehicles with enhanced communications by next year, by making use of cloud-based systems that provide improved access to social media, entertainment apps, and voice recognition software.

Said Ghosn, “We will continue to make our cars more connected. We plan to lead in delivering Autonomous Drive vehicles. And, in every part of the business, we are recognizing the unique needs of elderly drivers and the impact and influence of female customers.


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Filed Under: Automotive News Tagged With: AUTONOMOUS DRIVING, CARLOS GHOSN, DRIVERLESS CARS, NISSAN, Renault, SELF-DRIVING CARS, TECHNOLOGIES

University of Michigan: Connected Vehicle Favorability Confirmed

April 10, 2014 by admin 1 Comment

A survey of public opinion about connected vehicles was recently conducted by the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (UMTRI). That survey, authored by Brandon Schoettle (project manager) and Michael Sivak (research professor), revealed that the majority of people surveyed in three predominately English-speaking countries (US, UK, and Australia) had not heard about connected-vehicle technology, but most expressed a positive initial opinion of the same.

Connected-Vehicle Survey

The researchers conducted an online survey through SurveyMonkey.com in March 2014 with the results published early the following month. The team developed a questionnaire to assess participant familiarity and their general opinion about connected vehicles.

As defined by the US Department of Transportation Research and Innovative Technology Administration, connected vehicles represent an initiative that aims to enable safe, interoperable networked wireless communications among vehicles, the infrastructure, and passengers’ personal communications devices. When fully operational, the technology is expected to reduce accidents, improve mobility, and provide environmental benefits.

stop sign
With connected vehicles you wont be
blowing past stop signs.

The researchers also addressed topics related to the expected benefits of connected vehicles, concerns about the technology, the importance of certain connected-vehicle features, and participant interest in owning and their willingness to pay for connected-vehicle technology. The same core survey was conducted in all three nations with slight variations for spelling and currency.

Some 1,596 completed applications were accepted with the United States accounting for 576 responses to 520 from the United Kingdom and 500 from Australia. The researchers claim that the populace of the respective nations were represented minus people that do not have Internet access.

First Impressions

The researchers first asked the survey participants, “Had you ever heard of connected
vehicles before participating in this survey?” Overwhelmingly that answer was no, with only 21.9 percent affirming that they had.

Once they understood what connected-vehicle technology was, 62.4 percent expressed either a very positive (23.4 percent) or somewhat positive (39 percent) opinion about connected vehicles. Approximately one-third (32.6 percent) of the participants were neutral with just 4.9 percent offering negative (3.9 percent) or very negative (1 percent) opinions.

University of Michigan Transportation Institute

Source: Brandon Schoettle and Michael Sivak, University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute

Connected Vehicle Benefits

The UMTRI moved on to ask, “How likely do you think it is that the following benefits will occur when using connected vehicles?” That third question covered a number of topics including fewer crashes and a reduction in injuries, improved emergency response time, reduced traffic congestion, shorter travel time, lower vehicle emissions, improved fuel economy, lower insurance rates, and fewer driver distractions.

Some 85.9 percent of the participants believed that fewer crashes were very likely (28 percent) or somewhat likely (57.9 percent). Nearly as many (83.7 percent) believed that crash severity would fall as well.

As far as the impact on insurance rates, approximately two-thirds (67.4 percent) believed that insurance rates would fall, but an even 25 percent thought it somewhat unlikely. And despite connected vehicles doing much of the driving, nearly 40 percent were skeptical that it would cut down on distracted driving.

University of Michigan Transportation Institute

Source: Brandon Schoettle and Michael Sivak, University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute

Safety Consequence and Other Concerns

The fourth question asked, How concerned are you about the following issues related to connected vehicles?” That question also covered a number of topics including the safety consequences of equipment failure, driver legal liability, system and vehicle security as pertains to hackers, data privacy, pedestrian and cyclist interaction, learning how to operate these vehicles, potential distractions, performance in certain weather conditions, and the drivers reliability on the technology.

Some 82.1 percent of the participants expressed some level of concern about equipment or system failure. Just over two-thirds were concerned about potential legal liability for the driver or the vehicle owner, while three-quarters of the respondents believed that drivers would rely too much on the technology.

Pay Up or Not

The researchers concluded that the answers were very uniform across the three countries surveyed with high levels of agreement in a number of areas. Most participants expressed their interest in having connected-vehicle technology in their cars, although half said that they weren’t willing to pay for it. Of those willing to do so, those amounts ranged from US$20 to US$1,500.

Founded in 1965, UMTRI is a leader in motor vehicle research related to injury biomechanics. The institute has conducted more than 1,000 short- and long-term projects in a variety of areas including accident data collection and traffic safety analysis. UMTRI is also committed to advancing safe and sustainable transportation.

Filed Under: Automotive News Tagged With: Australia, AUTONOMOUS DRIVING, BRANDON SCHOETTLE, CONNECTED VEHICLE, insurance, Michael Sivak, SURVEY, UK, UMTRI, UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN, USA

Autonomous Driving: Ford Collaborates With MIT, Stanford

January 23, 2014 by admin 1 Comment

Moving forward with autonomous driving research.

The Ford Motor Company is working with a pair of university partners as it commits to advancing its research on autonomous driving. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) will be handling scenario planning in an effort to forecast the actions of other vehicles and pedestrians. Stanford University researchers will help Ford learn how a vehicle might maneuver to permit its sensors to look around obstacles. Both projects are part of Fords Blueprint for Mobility initiative that looks beyond 2025 to see where autonomous driving and advanced technologies might impact transportation.

Autonomous Driving: Ford Fusion Hybrid

A team of Ford Fusion Hybrids outfitted with autonomous equipment.

Autonomous Driving Projects

Ford’s latest technology announcement follows and builds on its automated Ford Fusion Hybrid research vehicle that rolled out last month. Automated driving falls under Fords mobility blueprint, what will help the automaker determine the business models and partnerships it will need to reach its goals. The automaker anticipates that it will need to collaborate with many new partners across the public and private sectors, something it intends to begin immediately with the help of its academic partners.

Paul Mascarenas, chief technical officer and Vice President, Ford research and innovation said, “Working with university partners like MIT and Stanford enables us to address some of the longer-term challenges surrounding automated driving while exploring more near-term solutions for delivering an even safer and more efficient driving experience.”

The Ford Fusion Hybrid research vehicle is based on technologies the automaker uses today and makes available to its customers. It then added four LIght Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) sensors to produce a 3D map of the vehicles surroundings in actual time.

Autonomous Driving: Ford Fusion Hybrid

The University of Michigan and State Farm are also partnering with Ford.

MIT Partnership

Ford’s research with MIT will use advanced algorithms to determine where other vehicles and pedestrians might be in the future. It will build on existing LiDAR technology that is able to sense objects around the vehicle. The goal for Ford-MIT is to enhance the technology’s ability to map out a pathway that will safely avoid pedestrians, vehicles and other moving objects.

Stanford Partnership

Fords research with Stanford will examine how sensors might look around obstacles. The automaker builds on existing driver behavior such as when a large obstacle like a city bus blocks the drivers view. In such situations the driver might move around in the lane in a bid to get a clearer view. Working in similar fashion, Ford-Stanford are seeking ways for the sensors to mimic driver behavior and take evasive action as required. For instance, if the city bus ahead of the car suddenly braked, the autonomous vehicles sensors would scan the area to determine if it could quickly and safely make a lane change.

Autonomous Driving: LiDAR

Ford has tapped Velodyne for its LiDAR technology.


If it sounds as if the university researchers are attempting to inject some common sense into autonomous vehicle technology, youd be correct. Indeed, just as drivers have a sense for what is going around them while on the road and what actions to take, Ford and its research partners are seeking to attain similar intuitiveness with its autonomous vehicles.

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Photos courtesy of the Ford Motor Company.

Filed Under: Automotive News Tagged With: AUTONOMOUS CAR, AUTONOMOUS DRIVING, FORD FUSION HYBRID, LIDAR, MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, MIT, STANFORD UNIVERSITY

Are Driverless Cars Really That Far-Fetched?

June 10, 2013 by Mark Martin Leave a Comment

In 1939, American theatrical designer Normal Bel Geddes put together his vision of the future at the New York World’s Fair. The showcase was called ‘Futurama’ and allowed Bel Geddes to highlight his vision of New York in 1959; featuring city roads filled with fully autonomous electric vehicles.

His vision went on to influence countless sci-fi films, TV shows and books in the ensuing years, but his dream has remained little more than a fantasy. However, all of that is about to change with eight different major companies each working on driverless car solutions.

So, who will be first company to bring a driverless car to the market?

Is Google Winning?

Google’s driverless car solution is undoubtedly the most high profile of them all. The Internet giant has been working on its concept since 2005 and has already completed 140,000 miles of on-the-road testing with a driverless Toyota Prius, with only one incident. That incident happened when the test car was hit from behind while stopped at a traffic light by another driver.

The Google solution uses a very prominent laser, GPS and a video camera solution on the roof of the vehicle which maps out the surrounding area and any other obstacles such as road users or pedestrians. This allows the vehicle to navigate safely to a set destination without incident.

Google has estimated that the technology will be made available to the general public between 2016 and 2018. However, there are many questions that remain unanswered regarding how the technology will implemented.

Will Google team up with a car manufacturer and supply them exclusively with Google driverless technology? Or, will this be a standalone device which all road users will be able to buy and fit to their existing vehicle? The largest profit potential probably lies with the second option and this would also undoubtedly have the biggest immediate affect on the motoring world.

Is Fully Autonomous the Right Way to Go?

Driverless cars offer many benefits. For one, driving standards would be significantly improved on the roads. This would not only reduce congestion issues sparked by increasingly frequent accidents, but also reduce car insurance premiums for motorists as it is likely that fewer claims would be made if human errors were eradicated from the equation.

However, not everyone is completely happy with the prospect of putting their lives in the hands of a computer; regardless of the success of the Google solution thus far. A number of manufacturers are therefore working on autonomous vehicle solutions which only work at low speeds.

Mercedes-Benz, for instance, has plans to release an S-Class model later this year which is equipped with a driverless car solution. The system will operate the car at speeds below 25 mph to aid with tedious inner city driving.

Mercedes is leading the way in the race to be first to market with this solution, but it is not quite as advanced at the moment as a solution being worked on General Motors. The American colossus is developing a solution which is capable of dropping off and picking up its owner, allowing motorists to go off to their meetings or go shopping while the car parks itself. The owner will then be able to specify a pick-up location and time using a smart phone app without actually being in the vehicle. General Motors is currently estimating that this very promising system will be available on its vehicles by 2015.

Will it Take Off?

There is widespread pessimism about driverless cars, with many people not being overly keen to rely on driverless cars at high speeds. The inner city and self-parking solutions being developed by General Motors might therefore be the right way to go at the moment; helping motorists avoid some of the aspects of driving which often prove to be the most frustrating.

Nevertheless, as with any innovation, it will still take a significant amount of time for driverless cars to become mainstream and it would, of course, only be available on cars produced by limited number of manufacturers.

The prospect of Google making this a standalone device which can be added to any existing vehicle offers perhaps the best chance that driverless cars have on becoming the norm over the next decade.

Driverless Car Infographic

MoneySupermarket has put together the following infographic, summarising all of these findings. However, perhaps the most surprising thing to come out of this is the realisation that driverless cars are far closer to becoming a reality than has been generally acknowledged.

driverless cars


Image Source: MoneySupermarket Car Insurance

Filed Under: Commentary Tagged With: AUTONOMOUS DRIVING, DRIVERLESS CARS, GENERAL MOTORS, GOOGLE, MARK MARTIN, Mercedes-Benz

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