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Up Next: Ford-Volkswagen Tie-up?

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What a week it has been. More like a half-week, actually.

For it was within that abbreviated timeframe we officially heard that Fiat Chrysler and the PSA Groupe (Peugeot and Citroën) were talking merger. The news spilled out late Monday and by Wednesday the two automakers came to terms. Today, news of the planned merger was announced, setting in place what will become a near $50 billion entity, which currently produces 8.7 passenger vehicles annually.

Merger talk doesn’t take place in a vacuum. Indeed, soon after the FCA broke off talks with Renault to merge in June, rumors of PSA’s interest in FCA came out. All we’ve heard is what was reported this week. But talks have been going on for some time, carried under the cloak of secrecy.

We shouldn’t be surprised that the two automakers are connecting as the entire industry is ripe of consolidation. With the deal nearly certain to pass, it likely will trigger further consolidation with perhaps Ford and Volkswagen following. Yes, these two automakers seem like prime candidates for an alliance or outright merger. There are several reasons why, which we’ll explore here.

Volkswagen and Ford: The Next Tie-up?

1. The two companies forged a global alliance.

In January 2019, Ford and Volkswagen announced that the two companies were forging a global alliance, but without cross-ownership. Pickup trucks and commercial vans were the first vehicles mentioned where collaboration will take place.

2. An EV/AV alliance follows.

In July, Ford and Volkswagen announced that the two automakers would begin sharing electric vehicle (EV) and autonomous vehicle (AV) technology. VW is investing in Argo AI, which is Ford’s self-driving technology, while Ford will build at least one vehicle based on Volkswagen’s Modular Electric Toolkit (MEB) architecture for sale in Europe.

3. Ford cuts back on cars.

The Ford Motor Company still produces cars, but the U.S. market will soon offer only the Mustang, pickup trucks, and lots of utility vehicles. With a VW tie-up, Ford might find it affordable and sensible to sell small cars again in the U.S., especially as the merged entity shaves costs. In any case, if the market suddenly shifts to cars again, Ford will have the platforms in place to build what’s needed.

4. The Rivian factor.

We already know that Ford owns a slice of Rivian, the upstart electric vehicle maker. Rivian will begin producing an SUV and pickup truck by the end of 2020. Ford will have access to Rivian’s skateboard electric vehicle architecture, which is certain to produce at least one model for the Ford brand. Volkswagen wants a pickup too and might utilize Rivian besides tapping the Ford Ranger for its own purpose.

5. Big is better.

When it comes to building passenger vehicles, the bigger you are, the better. Or at least that is the thinking in this industry. Yes, “economies of scale” and “synergies” are realized through smart collaboration. But there is another factor, bragging rights, which the new company led by Volkswagen would claim as sales would top an estimated 14 million units annually, putting the new automaker well in front of the pack.

What About GM?

With FCA and PSA hooking up and Ford and Volkswagen presenting a strong argument for consolidation, what about GM? At one time we might have seen GM go it alone or acquire another automaker, but that’s not going to happen.

Fresh on the heels of a costly labor agreement with the UAW, GM is ripe for the picking. We don’t see Toyota or Hyundai/Kia interested nor is it likely Honda with its independent streak planning to do likewise. There’s a chance GM might find a place in the Renault-Nissan alliance, but we think a Chinese suitor is just as likely.

In any case, the industry is changing and most likely will see additional mergers, acquisitions, and alliances in the months ahead. FCA and PSA triggered the tsunami. Now we’ll witness how other automakers avoid getting consumed by the waves of change.

See Also — Emerging Alliances Point to Further Auto Industry Consolidation

Deal Undone:
Fiat Chrysler Renault Merger

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It was a merger of equals, bringing together automakers with a strong presence in Europe and the Americas. The deal seemed to emerge from nowhere and just as quickly it died. Whatever thoughts you had about a Fiat Chrysler Renault tie-up, it isn’t going to happen. At least not in the near future.

Fiat suddenly pulled out of the deal on Wednesday, reportedly weary of the delays it ultimately pinned on the French government. Renault itself was onboard — but the company is also partially owned by the French, thus government involvement was and is an important consideration in the manner the automaker is operated.

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles

Ghosn is Gone

Apparently, the French were waiting on Nissan’s feedback, a company allied with Renault. Although not directly involved in the merger, Nissan would have a significant say in how the alliance would continue after the merger. At first, the Japanese automaker seemed indifferent to the merger, but the French were concerned that the alliance might unravel later. Further, where Carlos Ghosn once held Renault, Nissan, and Mitsubishi together, his leadership is no longer a factor. In fact, Ghosn is in legal trouble with Nissan and that dilemma extends to the Japanese government itself.

Oh, what a tangled web we weave! (When first we practise to deceive!)

Although deception isn’t listed as one of the reasons for the failed merger (with apologies to Sir Walter Scott), a lack of trust certainly was. Indeed, the post-mortem showed much weariness on Fiat’s part in getting the French government’s approval, which again, was based on Nissan’s backing. An initial delay turned into a second delay, which soon morphed into a postponement of at least five days. That last setback was too much, so FCA officially canceled the deal.

Bigland Whistleblower Lawsuit

While all this was happening, another story emerged that might have helped scuttle the deal. On Wednesday, FCA’s head of Ram truck sales, Reid Bigland, filed a whistleblower lawsuit against his employer. This stunning development comes as the federal government continues to review the automaker’s sales figures.

In particular, the SEC noted that the company reported inflated sales, which could have an impact on investors. In his lawsuit, Bigland charged that FCA pinned the blame on him and withheld most of his compensation in 2018, in part to cover fines it attributes to the executive. The executive is seeking to clear his name and regain lost compensation, reportedly in the millions of dollars.

Bigland is also the only FCA executive to sell all his shares in the automaker. That said, CEO Mike Manley sold $3.5 million in company shares immediately after the FCA-Renault merger was announced. Exactly what the sales figures and share selling have to do with the aborted merger isn’t known, although it adds an interesting wrinkle to the story.

FCA: Moving Forward

With the failed merger now in its rearview mirror, FCA will have to address the Bigland suit and settle with the federal government. It is never a good thing when a top executive files suit, especially one from one someone so influential. Bigland is also the CEO of FCA Canada.

Besides the Bigland suit, the company must continue its focus on two core brands: Jeep and Ram. Jeep has become the company’s star player, driving sales and profits to bolster the company. The automaker plans to build a new manufacturing plant in Detroit, where it will produce a pair of full-size and upscale Jeep models.

The Ram brand is also thriving and delivers its own share of the profits. The redesigned Ram 1500 recently nudged the Chevrolet Silverado out of second place among full-size pickup trucks and continues to garner a larger slice of the sales pie.

Finally, FCA will have to plan a future without another automaker, at least not with Renault. Had it merged with Renault, it would have gained access to the French brand’s electric vehicle platform, saving the company billions of dollars. As it now stands, FCA will bear that cost alone along with the added expense of developing autonomous vehicles in-house.

See Also — Fiat Chrysler Renault Merger Talk Heightens